Fundamental analysis

Fundamentals are the why behind big moves: interest rates, inflation, earnings, politics. Short-term traders rarely out-analyse the market on fundamentals — but ignoring the calendar is how careful technical trades get destroyed in seconds.

The calendar is non-negotiable

Central bank decisions (Bank of England, Fed, ECB), inflation prints (CPI), jobs data (UK labour market, US non-farm payrolls) and GDP releases move indices and FX within milliseconds. Spreads widen, ordinary stops slip, and prices gap. Check an economic calendar before every session; if a red-flag release lands during your trade's life, either size for the volatility or be flat.

What moves what

Indices track rate expectations, earnings seasons and risk appetite — often led by the US session. FX is relative: it's one economy's rates and data against another's. Commodities have their own physics — OPEC and inventories for oil, real yields and the dollar for gold, weather for agriculture. Individual shares answer to results, guidance and analyst revisions, and they gap hard: see share spread betting.

Earnings and single-stock events

A company reporting after the close can open 10% away from where your stop waited. If you hold spread bets through results, accept gap risk consciously — or pay for a guaranteed stop. "It beat expectations but fell" is normal: prices move on the gap between results and what was already priced in, not on whether numbers are good.

Using fundamentals without becoming an economist

For most retail traders the realistic use is defensive: know when the market you trade has scheduled event risk, understand which regime you're in (rates rising or falling, risk-on or risk-off), and stop expecting technical levels to hold through fundamental shocks. Depth beyond that — valuation work, macro forecasting — rewards study but rarely fits a per-point betting timeframe.